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发信人: jjksam (I want to believe), 信区: Linux
标 题: Linux Forecasts :-)
发信站: 荔园晨风BBS站 (Sat Jan 5 20:56:00 2002), 转信
10 Linux predictions for 2002
Plus, a scorecard of Joe Barr's 2001 predictions.
Summary
Joe Barr was dead-right about the events in the
Microsoft antitrust suit in 2001, but was dead-wrong
about Linus Torvalds stepping away from kernel
development. Ten new predictions for Linux in the New
Year. (1,000 words)
............................
By Joe Barr
(LinuxWorld) -- The end of the year. Traditionally,
this is a time to pause and reflect on the happenings
of the old year as well as the possibilities for the
new one. Last year at this time I wrote my first
"crystal ball" piece and made ten predictions for the
year 2000. Looking back on them now (the URL is given
in Resources), I'll say that while I did no better
than a coin toss, it could have been much worse.
I'll give myself the Golden "Hammer on Nail" award for
predicting that " the Microsoft appeal of Judge Thomas
Penfield Jackson's rulings will result in his findings
of law being overturned, but his findings of fact will
stand. The breakup of Microsoft will be abandoned on
appeal, and the lower court will be ordered to come up
with new, less drastic remedies. Under the Bush
administration, the DOJ will lose its zeal for
pursuing the case to a just conclusion, and no
substantial or effective remedies will ever be
implemented."
I think I also deserve a Silver "Close But No Cigar"
medallion for speculating on a merger between VA and
Red Hat. The Cardinal Fedora did pick up some VA
assets in the form of the migration of management and
workers from the VA Professional Services division to
Red Hat, but it wasn't an acquisition or merger.
Finally, I earned the Bronze "Low Light Bulb" award
for a pair of big clunkers: suggesting that Linus
Torvalds would step away from active participation in
kernel development on the one hand and that 2001 would
be the year that the Linux desktop became a standard
fixture.
In spite my 2001 batting average, I'm back this year
to once again gaze into my crystal ball and offer my
thoughts on what's coming for Linux in the year 2002.
Linux business sector will emerge from slump
Red Hat will continue to increase market share, sales
and profits, leading the ragtag band of open source
survivors out of the wilderness of the recession to
the land of black bottom lines.
Linux desktop will appear in public places
The Linux desktop will achieve a measurable market
share on consumer machines and an even larger share of
desktops for business and government. The growth will
be fueled by both continuing refinement and
improvement of the desktop, the growing
dissatisfaction with Windows performance, security,
and pricing, and the easing of Microsoft licensing
restrictions.
Linux preloads will follow suit
Both pure Linux and dual-boot Linux/Windows machines
from top-tier OEMs will start to appear in the
marketplace as Microsoft ever so slightly begins to
loosen its death-grip on the preload marketplace.
Landmark antitrust case will drag on
The Microsoft/DOJ "settlement" will be tossed out by
the judge as being completely one-sided and the court
will compromise between the demands of the holdout
states and the DOJ. Microsoft will appeal the new
finding to the Supreme Court since it would -- unlike
the terms of the current "settlement" -- actually
prevent them from continuing many of their illegal
business practices.
U.S. spy-secrets will be revealed
A major three-letter intelligence agency will suffer a
public and catastrophic breach of classified data
because of exploits in Windows XP and ban its use
completely. Previous security incidents involving the
loss of classified data will also be revealed. Eyes
(and heads) will roll.
Microsoft will be expelled, Linux will be installed
At least one global megacorp will announce a complete
migration away from all Microsoft Windows platforms to
an interoperable mix of Unix, Mac and Linux platforms.
Linux in prime time slot
TechTV will add a pure Linux show to its lineup. Hey,
it couldn't hurt. They laid off 135 employees in
November, some say as the result of losing touch with
their geek side. Leo Laporte has been Linux friendly
for years, to the point of having Linus Torvalds as a
guest. In 2002, Linux earns its own spot in the
lineup.
You have (secure) mail
AOL will stun the world by releasing a beta AOL client
for Linux. This event will be marked by both howls of
protest and celebration. Command-line interface (CLI)
diehards will proclaim it to be the death of Linux.
Most will simply acknowledge its growing popularity.
Darker Image PR firm to debut
Theo de Raadt of OpenBSD fame, Arpad Gereoffy of the
MPlayer project, and Brett Glass will team up to form
a new PR firm called Darker Image. The concept is
simple, like reverse psychology. For a fee, the team
will act as advocates for your competition. Rumors
have it that the dynamic trio is already in
discussions with Redmond about championing the Free
Software Foundation.
The revolution will continue as scheduled
Just like last year, my final prediction drives home a
simple point. Whether any of the previous predictions
come true or not, it's going to be another banner year
for GNU/Linux. It's popularity in the server, desktop,
and embedded spaces will continue to grow.
OK, there you have it. I've gone out on a limb for the
second year in a row with my ten shots in the dark. Do
any of them ring true with you? Write and let me know.
Better yet, dare to do the same and let me know what
you see for Linux in the year ahead.
Have a great, safe, happy, and prosperous New Year!
About the author
Joe Barr is a freelance journalist covering Linux,
open source, and network security. His 'Open Source'
column has been a regular feature of LinuxWorld.com
since its inception. As far as we know, he is the only
living journalist whose works have appeared both in
phrack, the legendary underground zine, and IBM
Personal Systems Magazine.
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※ 修改:·jjksam 於 Jan 5 20:56:25 修改本文·[FROM: 192.168.0.146]
※ 来源:·荔园晨风BBS站 bbs.szu.edu.cn·[FROM: 192.168.0.146]
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※ 转载:·荔园晨风BBS站 bbs.szu.edu.cn·[FROM: 192.168.0.146]
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